-December 2, 2003 

-November 30, 2003

-February 08, 2003

-January 12, 2003

-January 08, 2003

-January 07, 2003

Tuesday December 2, 2003 

Evidence?
http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~20954~1791069,00.html

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Sunday, November 30, 2003

It's been awhile so here's a mini-mega-post

Evidence? - from a friend
A woman I know got two bunnies. After a few weeks she realized she didn't have enough time to give them enough attention. She ended up giving them to a woman she works with, who lives with her boyfriend. About a week later the friend decided that she didn't have enough time to take care of them either. When she returned the bunnies their cage was filthy and the litter had never been changed. They were skinny and had obviously been underfed. Both smelled strongly of marijuana and one had shaved ears. (The boyfriend is apparently a barber!) Luckily, the bunnies recovered from their ordeal and were subsequently given to a more responsible friend. Last I heard they were living happily on a farm.

Evidence?
Over the summer I wanted to build myself some shelves (I need something to put all these damn kung fu dvds in).  I have never been very much of a tool guy until recently, so I realized I needed one of those little canvas aprons real men wear when they're building stuff.  I look online and I find Home Depot carries ones with their logo on it for a mere .99 cents.  So I hop in a car and drive down to Home Depot around 11pm.  I look around and in the section that I think it would be in, there are none.  And to make a not very interesting story a little bit shorter, I ask about 3 salespeople there for help, and after each of them running me around the store for about 20 minutes each, the mystery is solved.  It turns out the aprons were in a display in the lumber department, and the genius in charge of that section thought they were in the way, so he threw them in the dumpster.  That's right, he didn't move them, he just threw them away.  Two weeks later a new order arrived with more aprons.  Those were not thrown away.  I'm hesitant in buying Home Depot stock.

Evidence?
Some say "So Paul, with your wacky ideas of system collapse and the end of civilization, what's your take on the current war?"  Actually nobody has asked me that, but truth be told, one of the reasons there hasn't been an update in awhile was because I wasn't quite sure how to comment on war as it fits into the Impending Singularity.  I don't mean to be flippant when people are dying.  But the way I see it, war is part of the system.  Whether you're pro or con war in the abstract or the specific, it seems to me that armed conflict isn't necessarily a sign of system collapse, as counterintuitive as that may sound.

Evidence?
FightLikeApes recently moved hosting companies.  And within a month with our new host we permanently lost email, one day for over 15 hours, on another day for over 9 hours.  Periodically we cannot retrieve email, because as tech support says, they're "charging batteries."  The server we are on was the target of a denial-of-service attack.  Not related to the hosting company but equally annoying, FightLikeApes seemed to propagate correctly to the new host every place on earth except for here with Staten Island RoadRunner, which uses a caching DNS server which can take weeks to update.  Luckily, a call and a discussion with a Level 3 technician, they wiped the cache for us.

Evidence?
My footstool broke.  And it seems like when I have people over there always seems to be 2 or 3 of them fighting over it.  So being a good host, I decided I should get a new footstool.  So I go to Linens and Things and ask for footstools.  They direct me to stepstools.  I go to KMart and ask for footstools, and they direct me to Hardware, where the stepstools are.  Let's pause here for a second and do a little dissection of the language.  No cursory understanding of Latin required.  

Footstool: a stool you put your foot on.

Stepstool: a stool that you step upon.

Christ!

So I decide to take a quick trip into Jersey and go to Target.  After looking around for quite some time and not finding any footstools, I ask one of the floor people.  The first woman I track down, I don't believe English was her first language considering her accent.  This is how the conversation went:

"Excuse me, I'm looking for footstools."

Blank, terror-like expression.

"Footstools."

"I'm not sure..."

"Footstools, you know, like an ottoman?"

"Animal?"

"Ottoman."

"Animal?"

"Jesus Christ.  Ottoman.  You know, hassock? footstool? things you put your feet on?"

"Ah, don't think we have them."

But of course they did.  It took me a little while to find one.  Not buying Target stock.

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Saturday, February 08, 2003

Three Roads to Hell
I've always respected the abilities in others to solve problems. I usually use it as a gauge to determine how intelligent I think someone is. Maybe that's just projection on my part, since I feel I'm a pretty good problem solver. Now, one of the things that I believe may be propelling the Impending Singularity is the lack of basic problem-solving skills. That along with people's laziness, which causes quick fix solutions to be implemented as opposed to long term thinking. The Three Roads to Hell show some fundamental flaws in many when it comes to solving problems. 


Lack of Bayesian Logic
In a nutshell, (and also incredibly over-simplified), Bayesian logic concerns the ability to better solve problems by taking in new information. Here's a quick overview of Bayesian logic: 

Bayesian Logic from whatis.com

Named for Thomas Bayes, an English clergyman and mathematician, Bayesian logic is a branch of logic applied to decision making and inferential statistics that deals with probability inference: using the knowledge of prior events to predict future events. Bayes first proposed his theorem in his 1763 work (published two years after his death in 1761), An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Bayes' theorem provided, for the first time, a mathematical method that could be used to calculate, given occurrences in prior trials, the likelihood of a target occurrence in future trials. According to Bayesian logic, the only way to quantify a situation with an uncertain outcome is through determining its probability. 

Bayes' Theorem is a means of quantifying uncertainty. Based on probability theory, the theorem defines a rule for refining an hypothesis by factoring in additional evidence and background information, and leads to a number representing the degree of probability that the hypothesis is true. 

A great little example of Bayesian logic is the "Let's Make A Deal Problem." It goes like this: let's say you're on Let's Make A Deal, and Monty Hall gives you a choice of three doors. Behind one door is a vacation to Hawaii, and behind the two other doors are zonk (bad losing prizes). He asks you to pick a door, and for shits and giggles you pick door #1 (for this argument it doesn't matter what door you pick). Now, Monty knows what's behind all the doors, so after you've made your choice, he reveals to you one of the doors that has a zonk behind it (remember, whatever you picked, since there were two zonks, there has to be one remaining). So Monty shows you door #3, which has 300 turkeys behind it, and he asks you, "Would you like to keep door #1, or switch to door #2?" The Bayesian question is, statistically, are you better off sticking with your original choice, or switching? Think about it for a second. The answer is, you are statistically better off switching. I know, it's very counter-intuitive, but it's true. 

For an explanation and a chance to play a java version, I suggest you go to this website:
The Let's Make a Deal Applet

Vapor Locking
vapor lock
n. 
A pocket of vaporized gasoline in the fuel line of an internal-combustion engine that obstructs the normal flow of fuel.

vapor lock (as defined by me and my friends)
n. 
When someone gets a thought in their head (often, but not exclusively, the first thing that pops into their head), and, FOOMP! that person is now locked into that idea or path and nothing can ever sway them.

Unless you happen to be brilliant or someone who guesses right on the first try, if you have a tendency to vapor lock, you're not going to get a lot of things done.


Faulty Abductive Reasoning
Abductive reasoning, the bastard child of inductive and deductive reasoning, with its use of generalizations and sometimes outright leaps of faith can put you in a corner. I've decided to call it faulty abductive reasoning because many believe today that abductive reasoning is the root of medical diagnosis and scientific discovery. It's even being used as a way to develop artificial intelligence. 

The following examples are taken for the excellent site Dictionary of Philosophy of
Mind.

induction - A method of reasoning by which one infers a generalization from a series of instances. See abduction, deduction.

Inductive syllogisms are of the following form:
These beans are from this bag. (and these beans..., and these beans..., etc.)
These beans are (all) white. 
Therefore, all beans from this bag are white. 

In a much broader sense, induction can be thought to include various other forms of reasoning including analogical reasoning, inference to cause form symptoms, and confirmation of laws and theories.

deduction - A method of reasoning by which one infers a conclusion from a set of sentences by employing the axioms and rules of inference for a given logical system. See abduction, induction.

Deductive syllogisms in quantificational predicate calculus are of the following form:
All beans from this bag are white
These beans are from this bag. 
Therefore, these beans are white. 

More formally, deduction can be characterized as (Cambridge Dictionary of Philosphy, p. 183):

For any sentence S, relative to a set of sentences K, a finite sequence of sentences whose last sentence is S (the one said to be deduced) and which is such that each sentence in the sequence is an axiom or an element of K, or follows from preceding sentences in the sequence by a rule of inference. 

Deductions are relative to particular sets of axioms and rules of inference, as a given sequence of sentences may be a deduction relative to one set of axioms and rules and not to another.

Some use the term 'deduction' in a general sense to denote the fact that a conclusion follows necessarily from the premises.

abduction - A method of reasoning by which one infers to the best explanation.
This notion was first introduced by Peirce (CP 2.511, 623; 5.270) in an attempt to classify a certain form of syllogism. Abductive syllogisms are of the following form:

All beans from this bag are white
These beans are white. 
Therefore, these beans are from this bag. 

This inference results in an explanation of the observation in the second premise. Though this form of reasoning is logically unsound (as the beans may be from a different source), Peirce argues that scientists regularly engage in this sort of syllogistic reasoning. Though scientific hypotheses are not valid by virtue of how they are abduced, abductive reasoning was thought to constitute a "logic of discovery" in one of Peirce's four steps of scientific investigation. These steps are:

1. observation of an anomaly 

2. abduction of hypotheses for the purposes of explaining the anomaly 

3. inductive testing of the hypotheses in experiments 

4. deductive confirmation that the selected hypothesis predicts the original anomaly

Abduction is not currently thought to be well understood and Peirce's formulation has been criticized as being restricted to language-like mediums (Shelley, 1996). It should be noted that for Peirce, abduction was restricted to the generation of explanatory hypotheses. The more general characterization of abduction as inference to the best explanation is a more recent interpretation.


That Being Said
Like I said in the beginning, I've always respected the ability in others to solve problems. Of course these three flaws are not the only reasons that people don't solve problems well, nor are they mutually exclusive, they tend to overlap. I'm sure as time passes I'll find some other catchword or equation or logic system that I could plug in above, pave a new road, but after putting this together, I realize it's all talk. Could someone actually change if you pointed out any of the above to them? Maybe the real thing to discuss is are problem solvers born or made? How do we teach a society to think better? Are there courses they could take in school? Would therapy help? And if they're born, what if through mutation we lose all our problem solvers? 

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Sunday, January 12, 2003

Evidence?
A friend of mine needed ink for his color deskjet printer and realized that
it would cost him around $80. Then he realized that he could buy a brand
new printer for less than that, with ink included. So he's decided that,
instead of ever replacing ink in a printer, he'll merely buy a new printer and
sell the old one cheap on ebay. The fact this works as a money-saving idea
frightens me

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Wednesday, January 08, 2003

Evidence? - This is from the little woman.
My story goes like this:
I bought a new computer from an online company last December and it arrived in January. I had almost no problems with it for nearly a year. Sometime around November/December of ’02 I started having difficulty booting up. Paul helped me out and I thought everything would be okay, but from then until now, whenever I boot up I get a message that basically
reads:

"S.M.A.R.T. status BAD, backup and replace. Press F1 to continue.”

I press F1 and I am good to go.

So Paul does the research I’m too lazy to do and finds out that this is apparently really really bad; my hard drive is dying and “S.M.A.R.T.” is the program that tells me so. It means I will probably need to return the drive because it’s still under warranty for 2 years. So I call tech support at the company I bought it from, and the guy I’m talking to is clearly not a native speaker of English. He tells me step by step what to do, and being a total ignoramus when it comes to this magic box I’m typing on, I follow his directions exactly. But even in my splendid ignorance it doesn’t take much brain juice for me to figure out that he’s just gotten me to turn off that S.M.A.R.T. program I told you about. So I said, “Okay, but what should I do about the problem with my hard
drive?”

"No, no. Hahd drive fine. Hahd drive fine!!” he tells me.

Of course, I want to believe him, but more than anything I want to know what’s really going on. We decide that it’s possibly just some relatively harmless compatibility issue the guy couldn’t tell me about because of his lacking English skills. So the next day, I call tech support again, get a guy named Craig with a nice and familiar NYC accent, and he tells me, “Oh, no. You need to run diagnostic tests right away and find out what’s wrong with the hard drive so you can get it replaced.” When I ask why that first guy told me it was fine, Craig has no answers for me. 

Now I’m sure there are people even more ignorant than myself calling this place, and who knows what kind of advice they’re getting? What if my hard drive had died and I could have saved it if I hadn’t listened to that first tech support guy? Sure seems like evidence to me.

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Tuesday, January 07, 2003

Evidence?
A friend recently had a new bed delivered. When it arrived, there was a small tear in it. Angry over the fact that she had paid $1400 for the bed and that the warranty specifically stated that it would be voided if it was torn, she called customer service. The rep told her not to worry about it, that the tear wouldn't void her warranty. After some arguing, it was agreed that a new bed would be delivered.

What's amazing is that the rep was totally wrong. The warranty would be voided if the mattress was damaged. But why on earth did she argue in the first place? Isn't it more important that a $1400 mattress was delivered damaged? 

Evidence?
I've had trouble receiving my cable bill the last few months. After the second time a bill didn't arrive, I went down to customer service in person to try to get the problem fixed. They told me for some reason my address was being sent "care of" to my post office box, and no city, state, or zip code was listed. The appropriate boxes were filled and I was told I shouldn't have this problem again. But the following month came, and a cable bill arrived for the apartment above me, but not mine. A call to the cable company showed that those changes were never saved from the month before, and that I was most likely not going to get a cable bill this month. Called back a few hours later to see if the changes had taken place and was told no, the system had not updated to my correct address. I again went to the customer service center in person, paid my cable bill, and found out that, thank goodness, the system finally had my correct address. The next day, that month's cable bill arrived in the mail.

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The Impending Singularity: An Introduction

So what is the Impending Singularity? It’s a concept that has been rattling around in my head for quite some time. It remained nameless until I decided to borrow some concepts from the science fiction writer Vernor Vinge.

On Vinge
In 1993, Vernor Vinge presented a paper to the Department of Mathematical Sciences San Diego State University. He states:
“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated.” 

You can read the whole paper HERE.

In Vinge’s fiction, he has presented humans who have missed the Singularity and explores the origins and ramifications of the Singularity.

My Theory
I’ve lost you, haven’t I? You probably have no idea what I’m getting at now. Basically what I’ve done is I’ve taken these fears that I have, misinterpreted, misunderstood, and bastardized some of the ideas of Mr. Vinge, thrown in "Knowledge Doubling beliefs" for good measure, added my knowledge of conspiracy theories, and have given birth to this idea of
The Impending Singularity.

The Impending Singularity is:
-Because knowledge and technology is advancing so quickly, and we are not absorbing and understanding new concepts quickly enough, things are getting beyond our control.

-Political correctness has more weight than scientific truth, or it impedes finding what is the scientific truth.

-We live in a society where incompetence is not punished or weeded out or corrected. The competent, the thoughtful, those willing to learn are not rewarded for these traits, but are in fact at times punished for exhibiting them.

-Rampant anti-intellectualism seems to be the common attitude in so many levels of our society.

-Systems are getting so complicated, and those that know how the systems work are getting fewer and fewer, that they are destined to collapse with less and less individuals available to fix them.

-Our society is oddly two-faced: On the surface, people pretend to live by laws, but in reality everyone knows that cheating and fudging are commonplace.

These problems, with a myriad of others, lead me to believe that soon all systems will collapse beyond repair, and that our society will cease to exist as we know it.

In a nutshell, things are getting bad, they’re only going to get worse, and we might not be able to fix them.

Am I Kidding Myself?
Do I really believe this? Do I really believe in some kind of apocalyptic future? Do I really believe that the end times are coming? I believe it’s possible.

I’ve always been fascinated by conspiracy theories; not so much the belief that these theories are true, but the psychology behind the creation and dissemination of those theories. I realize that I’m falling into that horrible trap where I am creating my own belief system and finding evidence everywhere to bolster its existence.

Cynical? Yes, very. Real? Who knows? I certainly can’t be the one to judge that.

The Purpose of This Page
I plan on chronicling things that I feel show the Impending Singularity is coming. These entries will probably be all over the place, from incredibly petty and minor and personal, say recounting a problem I have with a customer service person, to world events that show frightening patterns.

Although this page does not post responses, feel free to send comments or proofs or arguments against to

Notes
I would recommend to anyone the works of Vernor Vinge. He has the two qualities I appreciate the most in a science fiction writer. He turns a good phrase, and he has big, big ideas.

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The Impending Singularity is the wacky concept of Paul M Yellovich.